Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.381548 2.533187 2.694173 2.878603 3.085048 3.310199 3.575946
2025-05-04 2.191630 2.403795 2.641213 2.929524 3.274307 3.678942 4.198427
2025-05-11 2.032737 2.273785 2.552958 2.905630 3.347562 3.895207 4.646298
2025-05-18 1.915563 2.175070 2.483705 2.886009 3.409800 4.089595 5.078409
2025-05-25 1.817858 2.089032 2.418538 2.859314 3.452123 4.253257 5.482821
2025-06-01 1.735209 2.014184 2.359371 2.831528 3.484924 4.400852 5.879325
2025-06-08 1.676255 1.964271 2.326837 2.833557 3.554800 4.604009 6.389882
2025-06-15 1.635560 1.934404 2.317037 2.863442 3.663847 4.874385 7.057772
2025-06-22 1.571135 1.869923 2.256944 2.817922 3.656493 4.960869 7.417851
2025-06-29 1.511153 1.808287 2.197042 2.767927 3.636758 5.022896 7.741447
2025-07-06 1.451107 1.743944 2.130167 2.703340 3.588548 5.030887 7.958872
2025-07-13 1.430325 1.731106 2.133061 2.740073 3.700920 5.324038 8.826571
2025-07-20 1.414259 1.724425 2.144758 2.791553 3.843404 5.693987 9.986226
2025-07-27 1.397044 1.715281 2.152246 2.836752 3.979459 6.073106 11.311893
2025-08-03 1.360806 1.678160 2.117579 2.813909 3.996473 6.222929 12.099109
2025-08-10 1.328212 1.644895 2.086933 2.795295 4.018735 6.385779 12.989343
2025-08-17 1.295793 1.610714 2.053433 2.769977 4.026453 6.518848 13.849116
2025-08-24 1.265010 1.577832 2.020498 2.743616 4.029802 6.642718 14.740655
2025-08-31 1.243553 1.557547 2.005459 2.745541 4.085488 6.891404 16.213421
2025-09-07 1.230123 1.548289 2.006479 2.773893 4.193426 7.279473 18.508018
2025-09-14 1.199322 1.512880 1.966388 2.730705 4.158633 7.318390 19.345644
2025-09-21 1.168895 1.477256 1.924872 2.683245 4.112105 7.322513 20.041833
2025-09-28 1.136357 1.437805 1.876381 2.621889 4.033998 7.237587 20.264028